Chapter 15 - The Beginning
My enjoyment of weather began, I think, when I learned to sail on
Flying, for me, has been a way to get up and explore the atmosphere. While I leave measurements to sophisticated instrumented aircraft, the feel of the air is enough for me to try to figure out what to measure. I thought of my sailing instructor the first day I was soloing with a ten knot west wind and fluffy fair weather cumuli. I flew under one and sure enough the turbulence was there; emerging from under one the turbulence decreased considerably. It didn't seem to matter if I was 1,000 feet below or near the ground. These clouds really extended from the ground to their tops. It was just the upper few thousand feet which was visible. I hasten to add that further investigation shows that on other days and with other types of clouds, the roots are not so well defined. But sometimes it happens, and those days are identifiable from the Skew T plot of the radiosonde data.
Flying is also a release from some of the limits on life. When aloft, I'm not confined by the tyranny of the two yellow lines in the center of the road and the white one on the right. I don't have to wait as an 18 wheeler grinds up a winding mountain road. Or, feel the wind when one goes by me at 80 mph. No longer does the interstate speed limit have the potential for a speed trap or worse just around the corner. I'm reasonably sure that there is space between me and my fellow travelers. In modern traffic on the 12-lane Interstate 270, I'm surrounded by cars, three in front, one on each side and three in back a total of eight surrounding me. I read somewhere that one in ten drivers is under the influence of alcohol. Probably the same is true of recreational pharmaceuticals, and I would guess that one in ten drivers is suffering from the flu they have, have had or are about to have. Drivers of two or three of those cars around me are probably not at full strength.
When flying, if a plane gets closer than 100 car lengths, that's a close call. The person behind me on the highway or byway is supposed to be one car length for every 10 mph of speed but they are usually two or three car lengths behind. Some people consistently take their "extra" five or ten or even 15, hoping to get somewhere a little bit faster or simply to reduce their frustration level. Lane surfing, made possible by the multi-lane superhighways in and around the metropolitan areas, is common and, I suppose, increases some people's enjoyment of life. Certainly not mine.
Flying doesn't have these restrictions, but it comes with its own different restrictions. These are, for the most part, self-imposed. One doesn't take off VFR when the ceiling and visibility are below your personal minimums even if it's "legal." Cutting in between thunderstorms is not cool. Taking off in fog is frowned upon.
To be sure, there are regulations. There are speed limits here too in Class A and B airspace. But these have been, for the most part, instigated by pilots to help other pilots from making the same dumb mistakes they made or have seen being made. There are other regulations which have been put in place simply because the population of aluminum upstairs has been increasing. It's no longer possible to set a land speed record on Daytona Beach without forfeiting some liberties; it's no longer possible to fly over at Dulles or National without talking to a controller either while flying or afterwards.
Having been fortunate enough to make my hobby into my profession, I must confess that flying is a way for me to get up into the elements I studied as a graduate student and as a professional meteorologist. Going upward through summertime layers of air, the bumps and smoothness tell stories about the flows and history of the atmosphere I'm flying through. The waves in the top of the haze layer are awesome for me to look at. The texture, the undulations and the smoothness all speak of stability, turbulence, wind shear and moisture.
I enjoy seeing a big thunder bumper from a safe distance and surroundings. There is nothing finer than to watch a nocturnal lightning display from the safety of my porch. They are generally better than a fireworks display. Aloft and riding in the window seat of a two- or three-holer, thunderstorms at a distance are magnificent. Working my way in the clear air below the puffy fair weather cumulus is a meteorological challenge to avoid the worst turbulence, the stuff that produces the black water which challenges sailors on the lakes below. And I try to do it so my passengers don't really notice the changes in course required by the fluffy clouds above streaming from horizon to horizon. In case you haven't guessed, I enjoy the weather.
Fortunately, the observations and research that has been done and to which I've contributed a minor part have increased our ability to forecast the weather. If you learned flying twenty years ago, you have noticed some changes. The same forecasts would be, on the average, four times as accurate as they were back then. The activities of the various portions of the meteorological community, public, private, and academic, have changed since I began studying the subject. I know they will change in the next twenty. The head of the National Weather Service has publicly stated that the NWS should achieve the "no surprises" weather forecasts in the next twenty years or so. By this he means that there will be no large devastating storms or large scale dangerous weather which is not forecast.
In a very real sense meteorology is starting on a new track. For the first time, the forecasters, both government and private, are beginning to have nearly real time measurements of the weather on scales smaller than 600 miles in diameter. For most of us it is exciting finally having good data to look at the inner workings of clouds. My favorite part is the simulations, and in the near future we will be able to improve forecasts of clouds and winds, key to aviation safety.
The entire NWS has been carefully prepared for this modernization. The staff have at least a minimal set of computer equipment. The result is that the new information has dramatically improved severe storm warnings and cut down significantly on false alarms. Other systems are being designed and built to put the data into forms from which a person or a computer can easily and rapidly extract the necessary information from them. Some of these systems will work well, others won't. The ones which won't will be fixed as resources permit.
Further, the federal meteorological community, the private sector, and the meteorological departments in the colleges and universities have begun a collaboration which is unprecedented since World War II. These collaborations have reduced the average time for a concept proven in the research community to practice from over a decade to a matter of a part of a year. The new data will continue to provide surprises. But if the planners have their way, the researchers should be talking and sharing data, will be able to do so without bureaucratic walls standing in their way. There are issues here. Some European meteorological services have been privatized. You may have to buy your weather information over there. West of the Atlantic we still have the option.
In the first decade of the next century, meteorology should be able to double the accuracy of forecasts from the present. Theoretical meteorology will probably be able to explain a number of phenomena which are now in the realm of the poorly understood. We may even be able to explain the two inches of "partly cloudy" in my driveway. While the information won't provide a complete picture of the weather in a 2,000-foot cone ahead of your aircraft, people are working on development of real time heads-up displays of dangerous weather you would encounter enroute. I've seen a prototype which gives the pilots view of the storm with down-bursts outlined in red, the radar returns in various shades of green, positions of other aircraft in the area and the runway outlines. The program operates on a personal computer, so it may not be far away if the communications problems and issues can be solved.
That's just the display of the information, the meteorology behind it is also improving. Plans are being finalized to assure we get the best possible products and information from the new systems. Bigger, faster computers are in the plans for running a new generation of computer simulations which will be able to simulate the weather processes as well as provide more detail. The products are being coordinated with the developers of the hardware, the research laboratories, and the FAA. The FAA is providing training for its people on the changes. Even some of the FAA contractors are in more of the loops than has been possible in the past. So there is hope that the improved meteorology will come through the various routes to us and improve our lives.
There are potential thorns. The aviation community needs to watch the developments carefully and complain when there are problems. Solutions will need to be found to bottlenecks when they occur. And, when they occur, let people know that there is a problem. Pilot reports will still be needed, perhaps more than ever, even ones in VFR skies and smooth flying. They are the only good measurements of cloud top height and the only turbulence measuring instruments which are in place for most of the free atmosphere. We are up there and feeling what the atmosphere is doing; we are the best, and possibly the only observers in the world. The new radars may measure turbulence indirectly, but the systems won't be calibrated to include general aviation responses, our real world, without pilot reports.
The Federal bureaucracy is litigation shy, so briefers follow the book procedures during a briefing. Their time is limited so be prepared for them to follow their procedure. Then ask questions. But do your homework first. If you don't use the checklist given earlier, use the spirit of the checklist and start looking at the weather in the days before the flight. Watch the tendency of the forecasts. Watch the weather. Use common sense. And when there is a question, get a second or third opinion.
My purpose of this book has been to help you to look and see something about the weather. Many people look, but few see. A glance at the sky while you are thinking about the next meeting you are attending doesn't cut it as far as aviation safety is concerned - unless the meeting really is about aviation safety. Watching the clouds just drift is not seeing. Watching them and remembering the processes that are going on in them is. Even better is trying to relate the processes to what the aircraft does and what you should be doing if you were up there.
I have called this chapter a beginning. For some it will be just in watching the clouds in a more knowledgeable way. For a few, one bit of information here might provide a mental connection which will help you avoid a dangerous situation or extract yourself from one. If only that one bit helps one reader, this book has succeeded. For me and the rest of the meteorologists the new systems and the new information are indeed a beginning. We expect the benefits of the things we find will help all pilots to have a safer and more comfortable life aloft.